Better Late than Never

Hi there. Sorry for being a little late. Delivering a monthly dose of insightful analysis paired with a personal take can be more demanding than I expected. However, it seems like I’m not the only one struggling with deadlines: On April 20, and with a delay of more than half a year, the lower chamber of the US parliament has finally passed a military-aid package for Ukraine worth some $61 billion. This decision had been anxiously awaited in Ukraine and was reportedly met with cheers in the trenches. It’s hard to overstate its significance: The delay had forced America to virtually stop the supply of weapons four months ago - leaving a giant hole in Ukraine’s defenses, which its European allies weren’t close to plugging.

Aid finally approved

The aid package finally passed parliamentary hurdles after months of pressure from European leaders, the US intelligence community and, of course, increasingly desperate Ukrainian politicians. Mike Johnson, leader of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives, had to overcome stiff opposition in his own party, eventually risking his position by working together with his political adversaries to get the bill onto President Biden's desk, where it was swiftly signed.

The first tranche of military aid will be delivered as fast as possible. It includes artillery shells, air defense missiles, armored vehicles and more. As this Newsletter hits your inbox, shipments of ammunition are probably making their way over the Polish border to the frontline, where they are desperately awaited.

Aid urgently needed

The situation at the front is dire. Ukrainian forces are massively outgunned and lack the air defenses to contest Russian jets from bombing their positions

To make matters worse, many Ukrainian units are running low on soldiers, while Russia has established a recruitment pipeline that keeps delivering men to the front. Pressure is high along most of the frontline. Last Friday (10.05), Russian forces launched an attack close to the city of Kharkiv to stretch Ukrainian forces even further. 

However, things are looking most dicey in Donetsk Oblast (region) where Russian forces continue to push the exhausted defenders backwards, steadily turning initially inconsequential advances into more meaningful gains. In the Avdiivka area, they are slowly approaching important highways and logistics hubs. A little to the north, an assault on the crucial city of Chasiv Yar is underway with over 20'000 troops. According to General Skibitsky, it's only a matter of time until the city falls. Once the Russian army seizes control of Chasiv Yar, they will be able to attack the last big cities forming the backbone of the region’s defenses.

It is abundantly clear that the delay of US military aid has led to serious consequences. To quote Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba: "[...] every Russian missile that hits a Ukrainian energy facility, that deprives Ukrainians of electricity. That kills civilians. It does that because someone did not supply an air defense system or an interceptor [missile] to Ukraine."

Aid will help

The long awaited US aid, along with earlier announced European shipments, will keep arriving at the front in the course of the coming weeks and months. Ukrainian artillery crews, who had only a few shells to shoot per day, will be considerably busier. Their disadvantage in firepower will fall from something like 1:7 to around 1:3.

Armored vehicles will grant soldiers much-needed protection and allow them to evacuate their wounded. Replenished air defenses will make Ukraine’s skies safer, protecting civilians, infrastructure and soldiers alike.

Most importantly, the resumption of US aid virtually rules out a catastrophic collapse of Ukrainian lines this year. While it’s not clear yet how far the Russian military can advance, its soldiers won't hoist their flag over Kyiv, Odesa or Kharkiv anytime soon.

Aid doesn’t solve everything

However, what’s important to realize: the aid from western countries has kept Ukraine in the fight. But at no point has the Ukrainian military been provided with enough weapons, ammunition or tanks - let alone airplanes - to liberate its country. Russia is, after all, still, occupying a fifth of Ukraine.

Over the first two years of the full-scale war, Ukraine has received $93 billion in military aid. And another $88 billion in economic and humanitarian aid to keep the country going. That’s a huge amount of money. But not beat-the-Russian-army money. Here are some graphics to put the donations of important allies into context: 

Contrary to what most people expected in February 2022, Ukraine has not been overrun by Russian forces: thanks to a combination of Ukrainians’s incredible resistance, Russian incompetence and a little luck, Ukraine is not waging a guerilla war, but remains standing to fight Europe’s biggest ground war since 1945. And conventional wars of this scale happen to be incredibly expensive. Each artillery shell costs at least $5000 - thousands are needed every day. And paying the salaries of more than a million people doesn’t come cheap, either.

To actually liberate all its territory, the Ukrainian army would have to overcome a well-fortified enemy who has two years’ worth of soviet stockpiles at his disposal, in a largely attritional war. That would take a lot more resources than Ukraine’s allies have been willing to send until now.

Yes, Europe’s support has increased over time. Different European countries are currently ramping up their defense production and will belatedly deliver artillery shells which were promised for March. Also, after much political deliberation, the first F-16 jets are expected to arrive at Ukrainian airfields in June. 

This, combined with the resumption of US aid, might allow Ukraine to go on the offensive again next year and reclaim some portions of the occupied territory. But if “the West” truly wants Ukraine to win this conflict, Europe and the US are going to have to get a lot more serious about their support. They would have to increase their financial commitments two- or threefold and significantly ramp up their weapon production to give the Ukrainian army a realistic chance to win their war against the world's second-largest army.

That is, of course, a big ask. But it’s doable. We’re talking about big investments - but we are also talking about allies that make up almost half of the global economy, and are currently only spending fractions of a percent of their GDPs on aid for Ukraine.

And now to something completely different…

After all this talk about weapons and supplies, I want to show you some pictures. Not the kind we mostly see in the news, of destroyed buildings, fortified frontline or artillery batteries. Instead, I asked my friend Vlad to take photographs around Kyiv, where “ordinary life” continues even in the face of an uncertain destiny. As you can see, it was a rainy day. I hope these photos give you a feeling for everyday life in Ukraine’s capital.